Predictions for Vancouver politics in 2011: CityCaucus Podcast Pt 5

Post by Daniel Fontaine in

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The Great Swami Halabaloo knows the future We pull out our special crystal ball and make some political predictions for 2011

In the final installment of our pilot CityCaucus Cast, Mike and I look ahead to 2011 to see what lies ahead for Vancouver's civic politicians.

We open the discussion by noting Mayor Gregor Robertson's poll numbers have been steadily declining over the last eight months. As a result, if an election were held today, it would actually be rather competitive between the two main parties - depending on who the NPA choose as their mayoral candidate.

It's clear that Vision have provided the NPA with lots of potential issues to run on, but are they up to the challenge? They've nominated two additional candidates who are slowly beginning to raise their profile with the media and beyond. However, Vision Vancouver are the most well funded civic political machine Vancouver has ever seen. They've received hundreds of thousands of dollars from social change activists, developers and unions to run their operations. It's hard to believe but the next election may well be a battle between David an Goliath.

As for COPE, Mike and I take a different position on their future. I'm more pessimistic and believe that without a mayoral candidate, they will get wiped off the electoral map once and forever. Mike believes the COPE brand still has some cache and should help to elect at least one COPE councillor and several Park and School Board officials.

We finish of our discussion touching upon the thorny issue of Vision's upcoming nomination meetings. Will Vision provide incumbency protection to their elected officials or won't they? After they heavily criticized the NPA for offering to protect former Mayor Sam Sullivan, it's hard to believe they would go down this path. However, it looks like the current elected officials may not have to run for nomination after all and will be granted a green light. What about the backroom deal that COPE and Vision are trying to negotiate before the next election? Will there be a positive outcome for both parties?

Here is the link to mp3 clip

Both Mike and I have really enjoyed taping CityCaucus Cast and hope you found the discussion of interest. Be sure to drop us a line at citycaucus@gmail.com and let us know what you think of the series. Depending on the feedback, we may head back to the studio again sometime soon!

If you want to listen to previous CityCaucus Casts, click below:

  • Part One: Vancouver's top political stories of 2010
  • Part Two: Vancouver's top political stories of 2010, continued
  • Part Three: Signs from Surrey, Toronto and Calgary
  • Part Four: Predictions for Metro mayors and impact of social media
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